And so the volatility continues: initial claims go from 402K to an upward revised 356K, to 377K, on expectations of 370K. The swings in this data series are getting as big as those in the stock market on those rare occasions when reality sets in. The miss is in line with the Fed perceived weakness in the economy. Continuing claims also missed coming at 3554K up from an upward revised 3466K, higher than expectations of 3500K. A whopping 146K dropped out of extended claims: in fact, in the past year the unemployed collecting post 6 month benefits either EUCs or Extended Benefits have plunged from 4.6 million to 3.4 million. As for last week's massive drop of nearly 50K initial claims, we learn that somehow it was New York to thank for this, with 27.7K less claims than the week before due to "Fewer layoffs in the transportation, educational, and construction industries." How about layoffs in the financial services industry, and also how much do those jobs pay vs "transportation, educational and construction" jobs? What however does not justify the Fed's ZIRP through 2015 or so, is the Durable Goods number which came at 3.0%, on expectations of 2.0%, down from an upward revised 4.3%. The bulk of this was in airplane orders thanks to Boeing as noted previously. However what was surprising is that Durable Goods ex transportation came in at a blistering 2.1% on Exp of 0.9%, and Capital Goods Orders ex Non-Def and Aircraft which rose 2.9% on expectations of 1.0%. However since the Fed has made it clear it will boost its balance sheet, and as of today the implied increase is over $800 billion, at the smallest whiff of trouble, the risk bubble is in full on mode as bad news is good news, and good news is better news.
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